A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
