Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The typical count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new government data. But, security analysts have warned that murder numbers may not indicate improved national stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded in these past months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

However, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not useful for gauging the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it might hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes high peaks of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst remarked.